load("data-raw/ListOfAllHeatwaves.Rdata")
hw=data.frame(all.hws)
colnames(hw)[28]<="mean.temp.1"
## [1] FALSE
y1=hw$Estimate
y2=hw$post.estimate

## Test individual variables and response
library(splines)
library(ggplot2)
library(xtable)
xvar1 <- c("mean.temp","max.temp","min.temp","length","start.doy","days.above.80","days.above.85","days.above.90","days.above.95","days.above.99th", "days.above.99.5th","mean.temp.quantile","max.temp.quantile","min.temp.quantile","pop100","Ppoverty","Ppoverty75p","Purban","P75p","pop.density", "mean.temp.1","mean.summer.temp")
xvar2 <- c("start.month","first.in.season")

for (x in xvar1){
  print(x)
  my.x <-hw[,x]
  my.mod1 <- glm(y1~my.x)
  print(summary(my.mod1))
  #plot(my.x, y1, main = x, xlab = x)
  to_plot <- data.frame(my.x, y1, y2)
  a <- ggplot(to_plot, aes(x = my.x, y = y1)) + geom_point(alpha = 0.3) + geom_smooth() + xlab(x) + ggtitle(x)
  print(a)
  my.mod2 <- glm(y2~my.x)
  print(summary(my.mod2))
  #plot(my.x, y2, main = x, xlab = x)
  b <- ggplot(to_plot, aes(x = my.x, y = y2)) + geom_point() + geom_smooth(span = 0.3) + xlab(x) + ggtitle(x)
  print(b)
}
## [1] "mean.temp"
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = y1 ~ my.x)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -2.96991  -0.09920   0.01667   0.11567   0.77929  
## 
## Coefficients:
##               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
## (Intercept)  0.1478065  0.0624267   2.368   0.0180 *
## my.x        -0.0014253  0.0007355  -1.938   0.0527 .
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.0381296)
## 
##     Null deviance: 113.69  on 2979  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 113.55  on 2978  degrees of freedom
## AIC: -1274.1
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2

## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = y2 ~ my.x)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -0.10311  -0.01862  -0.00204   0.01550   0.52075  
## 
## Coefficients:
##               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)  0.0806886  0.0097375   8.286   <2e-16 ***
## my.x        -0.0002932  0.0001147  -2.556   0.0106 *  
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.000927726)
## 
##     Null deviance: 2.7688  on 2979  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 2.7628  on 2978  degrees of freedom
## AIC: -12348
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2

## [1] "max.temp"
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = y1 ~ my.x)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -2.97249  -0.10007   0.01587   0.11584   0.77671  
## 
## Coefficients:
##               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept)  0.0749358  0.0621628   1.205    0.228
## my.x        -0.0005580  0.0007229  -0.772    0.440
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.03817004)
## 
##     Null deviance: 113.69  on 2979  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 113.67  on 2978  degrees of freedom
## AIC: -1270.9
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2

## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = y2 ~ my.x)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -0.10346  -0.01848  -0.00211   0.01537   0.52073  
## 
## Coefficients:
##               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)  0.0664215  0.0096999   6.848 9.08e-12 ***
## my.x        -0.0001232  0.0001128  -1.092    0.275    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.0009293885)
## 
##     Null deviance: 2.7688  on 2979  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 2.7677  on 2978  degrees of freedom
## AIC: -12342
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2

## [1] "min.temp"
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = y1 ~ my.x)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -2.96554  -0.09888   0.01666   0.11461   0.78366  
## 
## Coefficients:
##               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)  0.2190875  0.0604579   3.624 0.000295 ***
## my.x        -0.0022948  0.0007211  -3.182 0.001477 ** 
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.0380483)
## 
##     Null deviance: 113.69  on 2979  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 113.31  on 2978  degrees of freedom
## AIC: -1280.4
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2

## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = y2 ~ my.x)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -0.10369  -0.01859  -0.00205   0.01566   0.51964  
## 
## Coefficients:
##               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)  0.0952239  0.0094232  10.105  < 2e-16 ***
## my.x        -0.0004706  0.0001124  -4.187 2.91e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.0009243208)
## 
##     Null deviance: 2.7688  on 2979  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 2.7526  on 2978  degrees of freedom
## AIC: -12359
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2

## [1] "length"
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = y1 ~ my.x)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -2.96700  -0.10079   0.01393   0.11688   0.78220  
## 
## Coefficients:
##             Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
## (Intercept) 0.011196   0.007237   1.547   0.1219  
## my.x        0.004850   0.001926   2.518   0.0119 *
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.03809659)
## 
##     Null deviance: 113.69  on 2979  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 113.45  on 2978  degrees of freedom
## AIC: -1276.7
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2

## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = y2 ~ my.x)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -0.10372  -0.01868  -0.00217   0.01537   0.51997  
## 
## Coefficients:
##               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)  5.585e-02  1.131e-03  49.405   <2e-16 ***
## my.x        -3.815e-06  3.009e-04  -0.013     0.99    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.0009297609)
## 
##     Null deviance: 2.7688  on 2979  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 2.7688  on 2978  degrees of freedom
## AIC: -12341
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2

## [1] "start.doy"
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = y1 ~ my.x)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -2.93860  -0.09699   0.01431   0.11610   0.77124  
## 
## Coefficients:
##               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)  0.1511477  0.0284908   5.305 1.21e-07 ***
## my.x        -0.0006055  0.0001379  -4.391 1.17e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.03793211)
## 
##     Null deviance: 113.69  on 2979  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 112.96  on 2978  degrees of freedom
## AIC: -1289.6
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2

## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = y2 ~ my.x)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -0.10113  -0.01846  -0.00246   0.01543   0.51844  
## 
## Coefficients:
##               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)  8.003e-02  4.438e-03  18.033  < 2e-16 ***
## my.x        -1.180e-04  2.148e-05  -5.494 4.27e-08 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.0009204324)
## 
##     Null deviance: 2.7688  on 2979  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 2.7410  on 2978  degrees of freedom
## AIC: -12371
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2

## [1] "days.above.80"
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = y1 ~ my.x)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -2.97193  -0.10025   0.01435   0.11664   0.77727  
## 
## Coefficients:
##             Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept) 0.022706   0.005949   3.817 0.000138 ***
## my.x        0.001561   0.001712   0.911 0.362194    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.03816703)
## 
##     Null deviance: 113.69  on 2979  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 113.66  on 2978  degrees of freedom
## AIC: -1271.2
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2

## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = y2 ~ my.x)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -0.10287  -0.01865  -0.00208   0.01544   0.52055  
## 
## Coefficients:
##               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)  0.0565759  0.0009283  60.946   <2e-16 ***
## my.x        -0.0002644  0.0002672  -0.989    0.323    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.0009294554)
## 
##     Null deviance: 2.7688  on 2979  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 2.7679  on 2978  degrees of freedom
## AIC: -12342
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2

## [1] "days.above.85"
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = y1 ~ my.x)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -2.97291  -0.09997   0.01555   0.11553   0.77629  
## 
## Coefficients:
##               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)  0.0281486  0.0045344   6.208 6.12e-10 ***
## my.x        -0.0006684  0.0016729  -0.400     0.69    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.03817563)
## 
##     Null deviance: 113.69  on 2979  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 113.69  on 2978  degrees of freedom
## AIC: -1270.5
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2

## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = y2 ~ my.x)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -0.10126  -0.01853  -0.00224   0.01556   0.52073  
## 
## Coefficients:
##               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)  0.0567912  0.0007071  80.319   <2e-16 ***
## my.x        -0.0005702  0.0002609  -2.186   0.0289 *  
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.0009282716)
## 
##     Null deviance: 2.7688  on 2979  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 2.7644  on 2978  degrees of freedom
## AIC: -12346
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2

## [1] "days.above.90"
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = y1 ~ my.x)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -2.97151  -0.10028   0.01532   0.11673   0.77768  
## 
## Coefficients:
##             Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept) 0.025413   0.003743   6.790 1.35e-11 ***
## my.x        0.004267   0.002887   1.478    0.139    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.03814968)
## 
##     Null deviance: 113.69  on 2979  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 113.61  on 2978  degrees of freedom
## AIC: -1272.5
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2

## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = y2 ~ my.x)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -0.10374  -0.01870  -0.00214   0.01537   0.52003  
## 
## Coefficients:
##               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)  5.586e-02  5.843e-04  95.599   <2e-16 ***
## my.x        -4.225e-05  4.506e-04  -0.094    0.925    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.0009297582)
## 
##     Null deviance: 2.7688  on 2979  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 2.7688  on 2978  degrees of freedom
## AIC: -12341
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2

## [1] "days.above.95"
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = y1 ~ my.x)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -2.97272  -0.09991   0.01516   0.11594   0.77648  
## 
## Coefficients:
##             Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept) 0.026617   0.003621   7.351 2.53e-13 ***
## my.x        0.003498   0.004587   0.763    0.446    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.03817022)
## 
##     Null deviance: 113.69  on 2979  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 113.67  on 2978  degrees of freedom
## AIC: -1270.9
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2

## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = y2 ~ my.x)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -0.10372  -0.01867  -0.00215   0.01539   0.51998  
## 
## Coefficients:
##              Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept) 5.583e-02  5.651e-04  98.799   <2e-16 ***
## my.x        7.803e-05  7.159e-04   0.109    0.913    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.0009297572)
## 
##     Null deviance: 2.7688  on 2979  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 2.7688  on 2978  degrees of freedom
## AIC: -12341
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2

## [1] "days.above.99th"
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = y1 ~ my.x)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
## -2.9732  -0.1002   0.0153   0.1161   0.7760  
## 
## Coefficients:
##               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)  0.0279420  0.0049859   5.604 2.28e-08 ***
## my.x        -0.0004227  0.0016200  -0.261    0.794    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.0381768)
## 
##     Null deviance: 113.69  on 2979  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 113.69  on 2978  degrees of freedom
## AIC: -1270.4
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2

## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = y2 ~ my.x)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -0.10174  -0.01851  -0.00229   0.01541   0.52092  
## 
## Coefficients:
##               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)  0.0569441  0.0007776  73.235   <2e-16 ***
## my.x        -0.0005142  0.0002526  -2.035   0.0419 *  
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.0009284692)
## 
##     Null deviance: 2.7688  on 2979  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 2.7650  on 2978  degrees of freedom
## AIC: -12345
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2

## [1] "days.above.99.5th"
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = y1 ~ my.x)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -2.97291  -0.09997   0.01555   0.11553   0.77629  
## 
## Coefficients:
##               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)  0.0281486  0.0045344   6.208 6.12e-10 ***
## my.x        -0.0006684  0.0016729  -0.400     0.69    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.03817563)
## 
##     Null deviance: 113.69  on 2979  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 113.69  on 2978  degrees of freedom
## AIC: -1270.5
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2

## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = y2 ~ my.x)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -0.10126  -0.01853  -0.00224   0.01556   0.52073  
## 
## Coefficients:
##               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)  0.0567912  0.0007071  80.319   <2e-16 ***
## my.x        -0.0005702  0.0002609  -2.186   0.0289 *  
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.0009282716)
## 
##     Null deviance: 2.7688  on 2979  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 2.7644  on 2978  degrees of freedom
## AIC: -12346
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2

## [1] "mean.temp.quantile"
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = y1 ~ my.x)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -2.98333  -0.09684   0.01291   0.11484   0.79752  
## 
## Coefficients:
##             Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)   -4.508      0.750  -6.011 2.06e-09 ***
## my.x           4.578      0.757   6.048 1.65e-09 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.03771449)
## 
##     Null deviance: 113.69  on 2979  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 112.31  on 2978  degrees of freedom
## AIC: -1306.7
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2

## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = y2 ~ my.x)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -0.10124  -0.01828  -0.00213   0.01573   0.51328  
## 
## Coefficients:
##             Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)  -0.7888     0.1167  -6.757 1.69e-11 ***
## my.x          0.8525     0.1178   7.236 5.87e-13 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.0009136979)
## 
##     Null deviance: 2.7688  on 2979  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 2.7210  on 2978  degrees of freedom
## AIC: -12393
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2

## [1] "max.temp.quantile"
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = y1 ~ my.x)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -2.96822  -0.09832   0.01425   0.11584   0.80617  
## 
## Coefficients:
##             Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)  -3.5956     0.7459  -4.821 1.50e-06 ***
## my.x          3.6435     0.7502   4.857 1.25e-06 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.03787764)
## 
##     Null deviance: 113.69  on 2979  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 112.80  on 2978  degrees of freedom
## AIC: -1293.8
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2

## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = y2 ~ my.x)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -0.10612  -0.01848  -0.00188   0.01546   0.51677  
## 
## Coefficients:
##             Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)  -0.5001     0.1164  -4.296 1.79e-05 ***
## my.x          0.5592     0.1171   4.776 1.88e-06 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.0009226938)
## 
##     Null deviance: 2.7688  on 2979  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 2.7478  on 2978  degrees of freedom
## AIC: -12364
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2

## [1] "min.temp.quantile"
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = y1 ~ my.x)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -2.98857  -0.09841   0.01601   0.11536   0.77765  
## 
## Coefficients:
##             Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
## (Intercept)  -2.4016     0.7664  -3.134  0.00174 **
## my.x          2.4614     0.7767   3.169  0.00155 **
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.03804937)
## 
##     Null deviance: 113.69  on 2979  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 113.31  on 2978  degrees of freedom
## AIC: -1280.4
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2

## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = y2 ~ my.x)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -0.10237  -0.01863  -0.00219   0.01560   0.51831  
## 
## Coefficients:
##             Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)  -0.4482     0.1194  -3.752 0.000179 ***
## my.x          0.5108     0.1211   4.220 2.52e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.0009242349)
## 
##     Null deviance: 2.7688  on 2979  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 2.7524  on 2978  degrees of freedom
## AIC: -12359
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2

## [1] "pop100"
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = y1 ~ my.x)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -2.96818  -0.10089   0.01295   0.11616   0.78215  
## 
## Coefficients:
##              Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept) 1.886e-02  4.614e-03   4.087 4.49e-05 ***
## my.x        6.653e-09  2.374e-09   2.803   0.0051 ** 
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.03807723)
## 
##     Null deviance: 113.69  on 2979  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 113.39  on 2978  degrees of freedom
## AIC: -1278.2
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2

## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = y2 ~ my.x)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -0.10327  -0.01857  -0.00201   0.01534   0.51744  
## 
## Coefficients:
##              Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept) 5.509e-02  7.207e-04  76.442   <2e-16 ***
## my.x        6.096e-10  3.707e-10   1.644      0.1    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.0009289176)
## 
##     Null deviance: 2.7688  on 2979  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 2.7663  on 2978  degrees of freedom
## AIC: -12344
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2

## [1] "Ppoverty"
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = y1 ~ my.x)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -2.96073  -0.09956   0.01541   0.11639   0.77997  
## 
## Coefficients:
##             Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)  0.03900    0.01184   3.294 0.000999 ***
## my.x        -0.08721    0.08228  -1.060 0.289299    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.03816328)
## 
##     Null deviance: 113.69  on 2979  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 113.65  on 2978  degrees of freedom
## AIC: -1271.5
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2

## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = y2 ~ my.x)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -0.10650  -0.01845  -0.00205   0.01553   0.52001  
## 
## Coefficients:
##             Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept) 0.053171   0.001847  28.785   <2e-16 ***
## my.x        0.019477   0.012838   1.517    0.129    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.0009290428)
## 
##     Null deviance: 2.7688  on 2979  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 2.7667  on 2978  degrees of freedom
## AIC: -12344
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2

## [1] "Ppoverty75p"
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = y1 ~ my.x)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -2.96393  -0.09968   0.01573   0.11654   0.78256  
## 
## Coefficients:
##             Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)  0.03969    0.01205   3.295 0.000997 ***
## my.x        -0.11167    0.10150  -1.100 0.271308    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.03816216)
## 
##     Null deviance: 113.69  on 2979  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 113.65  on 2978  degrees of freedom
## AIC: -1271.5
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2

## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = y2 ~ my.x)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -0.10491  -0.01846  -0.00209   0.01542   0.52003  
## 
## Coefficients:
##             Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)  0.05422    0.00188  28.837   <2e-16 ***
## my.x         0.01430    0.01584   0.902    0.367    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.0009295067)
## 
##     Null deviance: 2.7688  on 2979  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 2.7681  on 2978  degrees of freedom
## AIC: -12342
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2

## [1] "Purban"
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = y1 ~ my.x)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -2.98203  -0.10026   0.01417   0.11486   0.77640  
## 
## Coefficients:
##             Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
## (Intercept) -0.15052    0.06535  -2.303  0.02134 * 
## my.x         0.18770    0.06898   2.721  0.00655 **
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.038083)
## 
##     Null deviance: 113.69  on 2979  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 113.41  on 2978  degrees of freedom
## AIC: -1277.7
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2

## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = y2 ~ my.x)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -0.10459  -0.01851  -0.00197   0.01537   0.51900  
## 
## Coefficients:
##             Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)  0.03870    0.01021   3.791 0.000153 ***
## my.x         0.01813    0.01077   1.682 0.092589 .  
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.000928878)
## 
##     Null deviance: 2.7688  on 2979  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 2.7662  on 2978  degrees of freedom
## AIC: -12344
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2

## [1] "P75p"
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = y1 ~ my.x)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -2.97423  -0.10044   0.01471   0.11568   0.78084  
## 
## Coefficients:
##              Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
## (Intercept) -0.009905   0.015183  -0.652   0.5142  
## my.x         0.670282   0.267750   2.503   0.0124 *
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.0380975)
## 
##     Null deviance: 113.69  on 2979  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 113.45  on 2978  degrees of freedom
## AIC: -1276.6
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2

## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = y2 ~ my.x)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -0.10391  -0.01843  -0.00204   0.01565   0.51989  
## 
## Coefficients:
##             Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept) 0.049525   0.002369  20.906  < 2e-16 ***
## my.x        0.114620   0.041775   2.744  0.00611 ** 
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.0009274165)
## 
##     Null deviance: 2.7688  on 2979  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 2.7618  on 2978  degrees of freedom
## AIC: -12349
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2

## [1] "pop.density"
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = y1 ~ my.x)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -2.97510  -0.09896   0.01413   0.11688   0.78428  
## 
## Coefficients:
##              Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)  0.017168   0.004324   3.970 7.34e-05 ***
## my.x        11.413581   2.822498   4.044 5.39e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.03796919)
## 
##     Null deviance: 113.69  on 2979  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 113.07  on 2978  degrees of freedom
## AIC: -1286.6
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2

## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = y2 ~ my.x)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -0.10410  -0.01838  -0.00218   0.01536   0.51705  
## 
## Coefficients:
##              Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept) 0.0539502  0.0006738  80.064  < 2e-16 ***
## my.x        2.1883872  0.4398516   4.975 6.89e-07 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.0009220963)
## 
##     Null deviance: 2.7688  on 2979  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 2.7460  on 2978  degrees of freedom
## AIC: -12366
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2

## [1] "mean.temp.1"
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = y1 ~ my.x)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -2.95266  -0.09587   0.01591   0.11645   0.80225  
## 
## Coefficients:
##              Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)  0.141976   0.027232   5.214 1.98e-07 ***
## my.x        -0.001950   0.000458  -4.258 2.13e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.0379467)
## 
##     Null deviance: 113.69  on 2979  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 113.01  on 2978  degrees of freedom
## AIC: -1288.4
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2

## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = y2 ~ my.x)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -0.09870  -0.01866  -0.00209   0.01565   0.51583  
## 
## Coefficients:
##               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)  8.408e-02  4.231e-03  19.875  < 2e-16 ***
## my.x        -4.791e-04  7.115e-05  -6.733 1.99e-11 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.0009158206)
## 
##     Null deviance: 2.7688  on 2979  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 2.7273  on 2978  degrees of freedom
## AIC: -12386
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2

## [1] "mean.summer.temp"
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = y1 ~ my.x)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -2.94901  -0.09863   0.01634   0.11742   0.80527  
## 
## Coefficients:
##               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)  0.2490199  0.0414484   6.008 2.11e-09 ***
## my.x        -0.0030554  0.0005684  -5.376 8.22e-08 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.03781079)
## 
##     Null deviance: 113.69  on 2979  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 112.60  on 2978  degrees of freedom
## AIC: -1299.1
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2

## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = y2 ~ my.x)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -0.10280  -0.01857  -0.00213   0.01575   0.51700  
## 
## Coefficients:
##               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)  1.019e-01  6.444e-03  15.814  < 2e-16 ***
## my.x        -6.341e-04  8.837e-05  -7.175 9.07e-13 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.0009139603)
## 
##     Null deviance: 2.7688  on 2979  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 2.7218  on 2978  degrees of freedom
## AIC: -12392
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2

for (x in xvar2){
  print(x)
  my.x <-hw[,x]
  my.mod1 <- glm(y1~my.x)
  print(summary(my.mod1))
  #plot(my.x, y1, main = x, xlab = x)
  to_plot <- data.frame(my.x, y1, y2)
  a <- ggplot(to_plot, aes(x = my.x, y = y1)) + geom_point(alpha = 0.3) + geom_smooth(method = "lm") + xlab(x) + ggtitle(x)
  print(a)
  my.mod2 <- glm(y2~my.x)
  print(summary(my.mod2))
  #plot(my.x, y2, main = x, xlab = x)
  b <- ggplot(to_plot, aes(x = my.x, y = y2)) + geom_point() + geom_smooth(span = 0.3,method = "lm") + xlab(x) + ggtitle(x)
  print(b)
}
## [1] "start.month"
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = y1 ~ my.x)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -2.94929  -0.09803   0.01443   0.11560   0.77208  
## 
## Coefficients:
##              Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)  0.128440   0.029785   4.312 1.67e-05 ***
## my.x        -0.013917   0.004058  -3.429 0.000613 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.03802751)
## 
##     Null deviance: 113.69  on 2979  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 113.25  on 2978  degrees of freedom
## AIC: -1282.1
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2

## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = y2 ~ my.x)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -0.10171  -0.01860  -0.00252   0.01538   0.51916  
## 
## Coefficients:
##               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)  0.0764855  0.0046417   16.48  < 2e-16 ***
## my.x        -0.0028332  0.0006325   -4.48 7.76e-06 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.0009235377)
## 
##     Null deviance: 2.7688  on 2979  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 2.7503  on 2978  degrees of freedom
## AIC: -12361
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2

## [1] "first.in.season"
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = y1 ~ my.x)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -2.96622  -0.09896   0.01520   0.11558   0.76505  
## 
## Coefficients:
##             Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept) 0.020115   0.004563   4.408 1.08e-05 ***
## my.x        0.017936   0.007345   2.442   0.0147 *  
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.03810139)
## 
##     Null deviance: 113.69  on 2979  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 113.47  on 2978  degrees of freedom
## AIC: -1276.3
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2

## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = y2 ~ my.x)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -0.10236  -0.01829  -0.00224   0.01550   0.52134  
## 
## Coefficients:
##              Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept) 0.0544712  0.0007116  76.543  < 2e-16 ***
## my.x        0.0035529  0.0011456   3.101  0.00194 ** 
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.0009267675)
## 
##     Null deviance: 2.7688  on 2979  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 2.7599  on 2978  degrees of freedom
## AIC: -12351
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2

pairs(xvar1)